The week, explained (without the anxiety spiral)

If you’ve been doom-scrolling headlines about oil prices and war in the Middle East and wondering what it means for your mortgage — hi, that’s why we’re here.

The big picture: Iran blocked the Strait of Hormuz last week. That’s where roughly 20% of the world’s oil and gas passes through, and crude prices have now jumped ~70% since the conflict started — crossing $115/barrel. Gas prices could nearly double by end of March.

The surprisingly calm reaction: Markets dipped (TSX and S&P down) but didn’t crash. Why? Because Canada and the U.S. are net energy exporters now. We’re not the oil-dependent economies we were in the 70s. Vehicles are more efficient, renewables have scaled up, and most of our jobs don’t run on diesel anymore. Oil traders are actually betting supply normalizes within a year.

Carney’s Side Quest: PM Carney’s diplomatic push into Asia is paying dividends — China is easing tariffs on Canadian goods, canola could be next, and Cameco just landed a multi-billion dollar uranium deal with India. Saskatchewan: quietly winning.

OK but what about my mortgage? This is the part that actually affects your kitchen-table math. Rising oil means inflationary pressure. Inflationary pressure makes the Bank of Canada hesitant to keep cutting rates. If you’re on a variable rate, renewing soon, or house hunting with a “rates will definitely drop” strategy — it’s worth having a real conversation about your options.

Nobody needs to hit the panic button. But “wait and hope” isn’t a mortgage strategy. It’s a horoscope.