Oil Chokepoint Holds Mortgage Rates Hostage
Rates at a Glance
Current range is 3.60%–4.69%, depending on term, rate type, LTV, and the usual fine print. Variable rates are holding steady. Fixed rates are having a crisis.
What's Moving Markets
Oil is still calling the shots. Prices dipped on rumours Iran is ready to wave the white flag, but they're still elevated. If the Strait of Hormuz doesn't reopen by mid-April, expect things to get uglier before they get better.
The 2022 comparison is everywhere — and it's not wrong. Swap "Iran" for "Ukraine" and "oil" for "gas" and you've got the same scary bedtime story: supply shock → inflation spike → rate expectations up → bonds and stocks down. The rare double whammy nobody wants to relive.
GDP surprised to the upside — Canada posted modest growth above expectations. Don't get too excited. It probably won't move the policy needle. Canada's rate outlook is essentially being held hostage by a shipping chokepoint in the Middle East.
Jobs are soft everywhere. U.S. job openings just hit a six-year low. Canada's unemployment sits at 6.7%. Nobody's hiring. Nobody's quitting. Everyone's just… there.
The rate hike scare is fading. Markets have sharply dialed back hike expectations. De-escalation is the dominant bet — for now. File under: cautiously less panicked.
Rate Probabilities — April 29 Meetings
Bank of Canada — Apr 29: No change 99% | 25 bps hike 1%
U.S. Federal Reserve — Apr 29: No change 97% | 25 bps hike 3%
(Source: MortgageLogic.news)
Neither central bank is doing anything on April 29. Mark it in pencil, not pen.
Which Rate Should You Choose?
Want certainty? Fixed is still the safer play — but keep one eye on bond yields. The 4-year swap rate is sitting at a key support level. If it breaks lower, fixed pricing could improve. If 2022 decides to fully repeat itself and bonds sell off, fixed rates climb. That's the gamble you're taking.
Comfortable with some risk? Variable hasn't budged and probably won't until the BoC actually moves. The hold pattern works in your favour — for now. Bonus: variable comes with predictable penalties. We all intend to hold our mortgage to term. Life disagrees, frequently. Variable keeps things casual.
Renewing this year? You're in good company — 60–70% of Canadian mortgages renew by end of 2026. Please, do not just sign the renewal letter your lender mailed you. That is exactly how they get you. One conversation with us could save you thousands. Seriously.
Mark your calendar: April 29 — BoC rate decision + full Monetary Policy Report.
We'll be watching. You should be too.