Oil's a Mess. Your Mortgage Doesn't Have to Be.
Rates at a Glance
Current range: 3.60%–4.74% — based on term, rate type, loan-to-value, and so forth. Call for an accurate quote.
What's Going On
Oil can't make up its mind: Iran offered a peace deal, prices dropped. Trump said he's not satisfied with it, prices went back up. Iranian threats against U.S. ships in the Strait of Hormuz pushed them up again this morning. Until that shipping route reopens, oil prices — and everything connected to them — stay unpredictable.
The Bank of Canada held rates again — fourth time in a row: Inflation is expected to tick up to around 3% in the coming months as oil prices filter through. The BoC says it should ease back down by 2027. For now they're watching and waiting — and keeping the door open to hikes if things get worse.
The housing market is still quiet: Sales were flat last month. Prices dipped slightly from a year ago. CREA downgraded its forecast for 2026 — don't expect much price movement in B.C., Alberta, or Ontario this year.
Rate Probabilities — as of May 4, 2026
Bank of Canada — Jun 10: No change 87% | 25 bps hike 13%
U.S. Federal Reserve — Jun 10: No change 96% | 25 bps cut 4%
(Source: MortgageLogic.news)
Which Rate Should You Choose?
Need certainty? Fixed is still the safer play — but some of those ultra-low advertised insured rates are starting to disappear. If you've been eyeing one, don't wait too long.
Comfortable with risk? Variable hasn't moved and the BoC isn't rushing anywhere. The hold benefits you — and variable keeps penalty costs predictable if life throws you a curveball. We all plan to hold to term. It rarely works out that way.
Renewing this year? Most lenders will send you a renewal letter and hope you sign it. Don't. That's how they get you. One conversation with us could save you real money.
Buying? The market is quiet, prices are flat, and competition is low. That's actually a decent window.
Next up: The next BoC decision is June 10th.