March 2026 Mortgage Minute

Purchase
Written By

Rate Snapshot

  • Current range: 3.65%–4.39% — not much change. Where you land depends on term, LTV, and mortgage structure.

  • Headlines > fundamentals: Geopolitics and oil are moving rates faster than “normal” economic trends, pushing bond yields up and putting upward pressure on fixed rates.

  • Big question: Does the oil shock fade fast… or stick around long enough to keep inflation (and yields) elevated?

  • BoC tone shift: Even with soft growth, the Bank of Canada wants optionality—meaning rate hikes are still on the table if inflation flares up.

  • Why it matters: We may be entering a world where supply shocks (tariffs, AI, aging) keep rates higher for longer, even without a booming economy.

Rate Probabilities (as of Mar 3)*

  • Bank of Canada — Mar 18 Meeting:

    • 25 bps cut: 4%

    • No change: 96%

  • U.S. Federal Reserve — Mar 18 Meeting:

    • 25 bps cut: 4%

    • No change: 96%

Which Rate to Choose Today

  • Need payment certainty? Fixed is the safer play in a headline-driven market.

  • Comfortable with some risk? Variable is fine—just don’t expect quick relief if oil-driven inflation hangs around.

  • Where are rates going? Models give a slight nod to the 5-year fixed, but the gap is small. The smarter decision usually comes down to penalties, portability, prepayment flexibility, and how long you expect to keep the mortgage.

If your mortgage renewal's coming up and you’re feeling the payment shock—or you just want to know what makes sense for your plans, send a note and we’ll walk you through it.

*source: MortgageLogic.news (MLN)

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February 2026 Mortgage Minute